LONG TERM SUSTAINABILITY IN AN AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT: A SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH Short heading: “SUSTAINABILITY IN AN AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT”

Regional agricultural development projects based on water resource development have many potential impacts on social and natural environments. In this research, potential long-term environmental problems of the Southeastern Anatolian Project (GAP) related to water resources, land use, land degradation, agricultural pollution and demography are analyzed from a systems perspective. The analysis focuses on the totality of environmental, social and economic issues. For this purpose, a systemic dynamic simulation model (GAPSIM) is developed as an experimental platform for policy analysis. GAPSIM is validated, first “structurally”, using the tests suggested by the literature and then the model “behavior” is tested and calibrated with respect to available data. The reference behavior of GAPSIM reveals that, as the irrigated lands are developed, GAP faces significant water scarcity because of the increased intensity of cotton planting, the most water-demanding crop. Simulation results also indicate that two key environmental factors, pesticide and fertilizer consumption, reach undesirable levels. Alternative irrigation water release strategies, development rates of irrigated fields and farm rotation practices appear as important policy 1 This research is financially supported by the Bogazici University Research Fund, project no: 97Y0003.